The Market Says the Crisis Is Over—But This Oil Shock and War Risk Could Trigger a Brutal Reality Check

Wall Street’s Victory Lap Might Be Premature The S&P 500 just pulled off a full recovery—and then some. After dropping sharply during the recent geopolitical flare-up, the market has snapped back as if nothing ever happened. That alone should make you pause. Because the underlying conditions that triggered the selloff haven’t fully resolved. Not even close. Instead, what we’re seeing is classic market behavior: price action driven less by reality and more by expectation. Right now, the dominant expectation is simple—the worst is behind us. That assumption is doing a lot of heavy lifting. A Massive Energy Shock Is Being Brushed Aside Let’s not sugarcoat it: cutting off roughly 20% of global petroleum supply is not a minor disruption. Historically,…