The Confidence Strategy At the State of the Union, the president made a calculated decision: project strength. Declare momentum. Announce a “roaring” economy. Emphasize falling egg prices, cooling grocery costs, easing rents, and softening hotel and auto prices. No extended empathy tour. No heavy rhetorical pivot toward “affordability crisis.” Instead, a clear assertion: prices are coming down, growth is strong, and the country is entering a golden stretch. Politically, that’s a bet. Presidents rarely win by validating pessimism. Confidence can be contagious. But economics is not a mood ring. The Sentiment Disconnect Consumer sentiment currently sits near 56.6—levels seen during peak inflation in 2022 and far below where it stood at the beginning of the administration. That number isn’t abstract.…
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