The Illusion of a Quick Recovery Turn on any financial network or read the latest policy brief and you’ll hear the same refrain: once tensions ease, supply will return. That assumption collapses under scrutiny. The global energy system is not software—it cannot be rebooted. It is physical, capital-intensive, and painfully slow to rebuild. When dozens of critical facilities across the Persian Gulf are damaged or destroyed, you’re not looking at a pause. You’re looking at years of impaired capacity. Even in a best-case scenario—ceasefire, cooperation, capital flows restored—the timeline doesn’t compress. Specialized components take months or years to manufacture. Skilled labor is limited. Insurance markets retreat from instability. Financing dries up when risk spikes. The idea of a rapid return…
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