The Tariff Narrative vs. the Reality In 2025, tariffs dominated the economic conversation. Businesses panicked, markets wobbled, and economists warned of inflationary shockwaves. Now, new research suggests something unsettling: the real impact of tariffs was far smaller than advertised. On paper, tariff rates looked enormous—approaching 27% based on White House announcements. In practice, importers paid closer to 14%. That’s not a rounding error. It’s a fundamental disconnect between policy theater and economic reality. For my readers, this gap matters more than the tariff itself. It exposes how government policy is increasingly about optics, not outcomes. Why the “Effective” Tariff Is So Much Lower The research highlights four reasons why headline tariff numbers rarely match reality: Shipment Lags Hide the True…
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