The 2032 Deadline Is Arithmetic, Not Alarmism The Congressional Budget Office projects that Social Security’s Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) trust fund will be depleted in 2032. That date is not partisan spin. It is not a scare tactic. It is the mathematical endpoint of a widening gap between payroll taxes collected and benefits promised. The imbalance is no longer marginal. It is structural. Annual Social Security spending is projected to rise from roughly $1.5 trillion today to more than $2.5 trillion within the next decade. Even after accounting for payroll tax revenue and interest credited to the trust fund, yearly deficits are expected to expand sharply — reaching more than half a trillion dollars by the time reserves are…
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