The Old Playbook Is Dead For decades, the formula was simple: conflict in the Middle East led to an oil shock, which triggered a recession and broad economic pain. That pattern defined the 1973 oil embargo, the Iranian Revolution, and the oil price spike surrounding Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait in 1990. America was deeply dependent on foreign energy, and when supply tightened, the entire economy buckled. But that was a different era. The shale revolution fundamentally changed the equation. The United States is now one of the world’s largest oil producers and has operated as a net exporter of oil in recent years. That structural shift matters. When crude prices rise today, American consumers still feel it at the pump,…
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