The Big Picture: A High-Risk Moment, Not a Foregone Conclusion Iran is facing one of its most precarious moments in years. Widespread protests, a violent state crackdown, and escalating rhetoric between Tehran and Washington have combined to create a volatile environment with regional implications. What remains unresolved—and too often assumed in headlines—is whether this moment inevitably leads to regime collapse or war. The more useful framework is to view Iran as approaching a geopolitical inflection point, where timing, restraint, and miscalculation matter more than declarations or threats. Inside Iran: Protests, Repression, and Regime Survival Demonstrations have spread across multiple regions, with sustained participation and growing defiance of state authority. Credible reporting confirms hundreds of deaths, while higher estimates remain difficult…

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