“WRITE-DOWNS TO ZERO”: THE HIDDEN RECESSION IS HERE—AND THE FED HAS LOST CONTROL

The Fed Is Fracturing—and That Should Worry You I’ve been around markets long enough to know one thing: when the Federal Reserve can’t agree, it’s not just a policy issue—it’s a warning sign. We just saw one of the biggest splits inside the Fed since 1992. Eight members on one side, four on the other. That’s not normal. That’s dysfunction. And here’s the part most folks are missing: markets are acting like nothing’s wrong. At the same time, the job market is revealing a hidden recession, pressure is quietly confirming that something beneath the surface is breaking. That’s like seeing smoke pour out of your engine and saying, “Eh, car’s still running fine.” It doesn’t work that way. This kind…