The Warning Signs Are No Longer Subtle Let me ask you something: when nearly every major financial institution starts whispering the same word—recession—do you think that’s coincidence? Or coordination? Wall Street economists are now placing recession odds as high as 48%. In normal times, that number sits closer to 20%. That’s not a mild adjustment—that’s a flashing red signal. But here’s what most people miss: recessions don’t just “happen.” They are often the result of pressure points building beneath the surface—pressure points that policymakers see long before the public does. And right now, those pressure points are everywhere. Oil Shock: The Same Trigger We’ve Seen Before History leaves clues. Every major recession since the Great Depression—except one—has been preceded by…

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