The Oil Spike Everyone Is Watching Oil prices have surged sharply in recent weeks as geopolitical tensions rattled energy markets. Front-month crude contracts have pushed toward the $90–$100 range, grabbing headlines and fueling fears about inflation, economic strain, and market instability. But here’s the critical detail most investors are missing: The futures market isn’t fully buying the panic yet. According to trading desks watching the spreads closely, the front month of crude is trading dramatically higher than contracts further out on the calendar. In other words, oil for delivery today is expensive—but oil for delivery months from now remains significantly cheaper. That structure is known as backwardation, and it tells us something important. Markets currently believe this could still be…
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