The Strait of Hormuz Narrative: What the “Fear Premium” Story Leaves Out

The Comforting Story Coming Out of Washington The official line is neat, clean, and politically convenient. According to U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright and several market analysts, the recent rise in oil prices is mostly a “fear premium.” Traders, the argument goes, are reacting emotionally to headlines about military tension near the Strait of Hormuz rather than to a genuine supply problem. We’re told a few reassuring points: Global oil production remains strong. Tanker traffic is beginning to normalize. Supply has not been physically destroyed. Prices should settle back down within weeks. In other words, don’t worry. The system is working. But here’s the problem with that narrative: it assumes the global energy system is structurally stable. That assumption deserves…