The Strait of Hormuz: Why This Is Not a Regional Story About one-third of the world’s seaborne oil exports pass through the Strait of Hormuz. It is the single most important chokepoint in the global energy system. When tanker traffic slows—or stops—global supply tightens immediately. We are already seeing precautionary shipping disruptions. Energy analysts are now modeling scenarios that range from temporary friction to prolonged shutdown. The longer the disruption lasts, the more violent the price reaction becomes. This is not speculation. It’s supply math. Scenario One: Brief Conflict, Moderate Price Spike If hostilities ease within days, oil could retreat back into the $60–$70 range after an initial surge. Markets tend to overreact to geopolitical headlines before stabilizing. Under this…
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