No, Tariffs Didn’t Save the Budget—They Just Distracted You from the Real Tax Drain

Washington’s Budget “Surplus” Is a Mirage—Here’s Why It Matters Let’s start with the headline claim: the federal government ran a budget surplus in September 2025—meaning it collected more in taxes than it spent that month. Sounds like good news, right? Well, don’t pop the champagne. The only reason for the surplus was a temporary plunge in spending, not some miraculous influx of tariff cash like Trump and his circle want you to believe. What Actually Happened? In September, federal outlays (spending) fell off a cliff, dropping by nearly 50% from August to September—from $689 billion down to $345 billion. That is not normal, but it’s not entirely unheard of either. Historically, spending tends to dip in September before ramping back…